The Role of Probability
Contents
Introduction & Learning Objectives
Introduction
Learning Objectives
Page 2
Sampling
Probability Sampling
Simple Random Sampling
Systematic Sampling
Stratified Sampling
Non-Probability Sampling
Convenience Sampling
Quota Sampling
Page 3
Basic Concepts of Probability
Unconditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Page 4
Evaluating Screening Tests
Screening for Down Syndrome
Sensitivity and Specificity
Interpretation:
Positive and Negative Predictive Value
Interpretation:
Positive Predictive Value (Yield) Depends on the Prevalence of Disease
Page 5
Independence
Demonstrating Independence
Page 6
Bayes's Theorem
Complementary Events
Probability Models
Page 7
The Binomial Distribution: A Probability Model for a Discrete Outcome
Examples of Use of the Binomial Model
1. Relief of Allergies
2. The Probability of Dying after a Heart Attack
Computing the Probability of a Range of Outcomes
Mean and Standard Deviation of a Binomial Population
Page 8
The Normal Distribution: A Probability Model for a Continuous Outcome
Normal (Gaussian) Distributions
Skewed Distributions
Characteristics of Normal Distributions
BMI in Males
Page 9
The Standard Normal Distribution
Probabilities of the Standard Normal Distribution Z
Probability for a Range of Values
Page 10
Computing Percentiles
Page 11
Sampling Distributions
Central Limit Theorem
Central Limit Theorem with a Normal Population
Central Limit Theorem with a Dichotomous Outcome
Central Limit Theorem with a Skewed Distribution
Page 12
Application of the Central Limit Theorem
Page 13
Summary
Key Formulas and Concepts in Probability
Page 14
References
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